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Watford vs Derby — Championship 2025

Watford
Watford
Preview
15:00
Derby
Derby
3/13/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37Vicarage Road
Big match
44%
Watford
model favours
44%26%30%

Watford score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Watford44%
×Draw26%
Derby30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
1.46
Derby
1.14

Watford creates 28% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 10 away

creates per match

Watford
1.34
Derby
1.08

allows per match

Watford
1.19
Derby
1.58

finishing

Watford-0.09on par
Derby+0.02on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Watford or draw
70%
Watford or Derby
74%
Draw or Derby
56%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
22%
Derby wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
77%
Watford 2+ goals
43%
Watford 3+ goals
18%
Derby 1+ goals
68%
Derby 2+ goals
32%
Derby 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
60%
Derby (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

Derby away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.34 + Derby defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Derby attack 1.08 + Watford defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Watford scores more
44%
level
26%
Derby scores more
30%

Watford at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Watford have scored in 10 games running
  • Both teams score in 80% of Watford’s matches
  • Watford have won 5 of the last 5 meetings
  • Watford raise their game against the top half — 38% wins vs the upper half, only 23% vs the lower

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Watford
Balanced
Derby
Balanced
51%Possession47%
80%Pass accuracy75%
13.0ShotsBiggest gap10.5
1.17xG1.06
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WatfordDerby

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

5
Watford
0
Draws
0
Derby
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 60%
2–03–22–02–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Watford
DLLLL
Derby
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Watford vs Derby — Match Preview

Watford face Derby on March 13, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Watford host Derby at Vicarage Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.