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Derby vs Watford — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Watford
Watford
S. Langas 54'
D. Sanderson 36'
E. Kayembe 88', 85' (pen)
L. Kjerrumgaard 61'
11/22/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 16Pride Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Derby42%
×Draw27%
Watford30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.35
Watford
1.10

Derby creates 23% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 38 away

creates per match

Derby
1.16
Watford
1.05

allows per match

Derby
1.16
Watford
1.55

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw
70%
Derby or Watford
73%
Draw or Watford
58%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
20%
Watford wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
74%
Derby 2+ goals
39%
Derby 3+ goals
15%
Watford 1+ goals
67%
Watford 2+ goals
30%
Watford 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
58%
Watford (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

Watford away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.16 + Watford defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.35

Watford attack 1.05 + Derby defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Derby scores more
42%
level
27%
Watford scores more
30%

Derby at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39
E. KayembeWatfordWatford · M
8.2

Match Events

18'
A. Weimann← C. Morris
35'
N. Irankunda← K. Baah
36'
D. Sanderson
39'
Dion Sanderson
54'
S. Langas↳ J. Ward
58'
Ben Brereton Díaz
61'
L. Kjerrumgaard↳ J. Ngakia
65'
V. Semedo← H. Kyprianou
65'
M. Doumbia← L. Kjerrumgaard
68'
Edo Kayembe
70'
K. Jackson← B. Brereton Diaz
71'
L. Salvesen← P. Agyemang
81'
M. Sissoko← O. Maamma
85'
E. KayembePenalty
88'
E. Kayembe↳ I. Louza
90+1'
L. Thompson← S. Langas

Possession

38%Derby

Shots

9Derby

Pass accuracy

44%Derby

Statistics

DerbyWatford
Overview
38%Possession62%
9Total Shots14
0.62Expected Goals (xG)1.47
9Corners3
8Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots14
2On Target4
6Off Target3
1Blocked7
6Inside Box7
3Outside Box7
Passing
38%Possession62%
265Total Passes470
173Accurate Passes387
65%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
-1.06Goals Prevented-1.06
Discipline
8Fouls15
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Derby 2 – 3 Watford

Watford beat Derby 3-2 in Championship on November 22, 2025.

Goals: D. Sanderson (36'), S. Langas (54'), L. Kjerrumgaard (61'), E. Kayembe (85' pen, 88').

Watford controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Pride Park in Derby.