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Derby vs Watford — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Watford
Watford
E. Kayembe 66'
I. Louza 4'
1/18/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Derby35%
×Draw28%
Watford36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.15
Watford
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 26 away

creates per match

Derby
0.96
Watford
1.06

allows per match

Derby
1.28
Watford
1.33

finishing

Derby+0.04on par
Watford+0.02on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw
64%
Derby or Watford
72%
Draw or Watford
65%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
15%
Watford wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
68%
Derby 2+ goals
32%
Derby 3+ goals
11%
Watford 1+ goals
69%
Watford 2+ goals
33%
Watford 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
49%
Watford (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

Watford away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 0.96 + Watford defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Watford attack 1.06 + Derby defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Derby scores more
35%
level
28%
Watford scores more
36%

Watford at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
E. CashinDerbyDerby · D
8.2

Match Events

1'
James Abankwah
4'
I. Louza
19'
Callum Elder
31'
Jeremy Ngakia
46'
M. Sissoko← T. Dele-Bashiru
62'
C. Blackett-Taylor← K. Jackson
64'
Y. Larouci← J. Ngakia
66'
E. Kayembe↳ M. Sissoko
74'
D. Brown← N. Mendez-Laing
74'
C. Forsyth← C. Elder
74'
M. Harness← K. Goudmijn
76'
R. Andrews← J. Abankwah
78'
A. Ogbonna← K. Baah
81'
J. Ward← K. Wilson
90+1'
Francisco Sierralta

Possession

56%Derby

Shots

15Derby

Pass accuracy

51%Derby

Statistics

DerbyWatford
Overview
56%Possession44%
15Total Shots15
1.25Expected Goals (xG)1.82
4Corners8
11Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots15
3On Target6
9Off Target4
3Blocked5
15Inside Box11
0Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
375Total Passes307
300Accurate Passes234
80%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
0.99Goals Prevented0.99
Discipline
11Fouls11
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Derby 0 – 2 Watford

Watford beat Derby 2-0 in Championship on January 18, 2025.

Goals: I. Louza (4'), E. Kayembe (66').

Derby controlled possession (56%) and registered 15 shots to 15.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.