Watford 1–2 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Chelsea

E. Dennis 44'

H. Ziyech 72'

M. Mount 30'

12/1/2021

Premier League · Round 14Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Watford30%

×Draw25%

Chelsea45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.58

Watford

1.23

Chelsea

1.58

Chelsea creates 28% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 204 away

1.20

creates per match

1.59

1.58

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Watford

1.20

Chelsea

1.59

allows per match

Watford

1.58

Chelsea

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Watford or draw

55%

Watford or Chelsea

75%

Draw or Chelsea

70%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

12%

Chelsea wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

35%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Chelsea 1+ goals

79%

Chelsea 2+ goals

47%

Chelsea 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

40%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.25 · 204 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.20 + Chelsea defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chelsea attack 1.59 + Watford defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Watford scores more

30%

level

25%

Chelsea scores more

45%

Chelsea at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Mount

Chelsea · F

8.2

Match Events

12'

D. Rose← A. Masina

16'

Saúl Ñíguez

30'

M. Mount↳ K. Havertz

44'

E. Dennis↳ M. Sissoko

45+5'

45'

45+2'

46'

60'

H. Ziyech← T. Chalobah

65'

Hakim Ziyech

69'

R. Lukaku← Azpilicueta

72'

73'

84'

84'

85'

J. Ngakia← T. Cleverley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordChelsea

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots8

6Corners0

18Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots8

6On Target4

4Off Target3

4Blocked1

6Inside Box6

8Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

399Total Passes422

276Accurate Passes304

69%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

18Fouls16

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides5

Match Recap: Watford vs Chelsea

Chelsea beat Watford 2-1 in Premier League on December 1, 2021.

Goals: M. Mount (30'), E. Dennis (44'), H. Ziyech (72').

Watford controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Watford vs Chelsea