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Watford vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Watford
Watford
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chelsea
Chelsea
Deulofeu 80' (pen)
C. Pulisic 55'
T. Abraham 5'
11/2/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Watford29%
×Draw25%
Chelsea46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
1.23
Chelsea
1.60

Chelsea creates 30% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 200 away

creates per match

Watford
1.21
Chelsea
1.59

allows per match

Watford
1.61
Chelsea
1.26

finishing

Watford+0.00on par
Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Watford or draw
54%
Watford or Chelsea
75%
Draw or Chelsea
71%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
12%
Chelsea wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
71%
Watford 2+ goals
35%
Watford 3+ goals
13%
Chelsea 1+ goals
80%
Chelsea 2+ goals
47%
Chelsea 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
39%
Chelsea (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 200 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Chelsea defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chelsea attack 1.59 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Watford scores more
29%
level
25%
Chelsea scores more
46%

Chelsea at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
M. KovačićChelseaChelsea · M
8.3

Match Events

5'
T. Abraham↳ Jorginho
20'
A. Mariappa← C. Cathcart
46'
Christian Kabasele
55'
C. Pulisic↳ T. Abraham
67'
W. Hughes← N. Chalobah
70'
Daryl Janmaat
75'
Kiko Femenía← D. Janmaat
80'
DeulofeuPenalty
82'
Craig Dawson
83'
C. Hudson-Odoi← C. Pulisic
88'
Adrian Mariappa
88'
M. Batshuayi← T. Abraham
89'
Jorginho
90'
Mason Mount
90+5'
R. James← Willian

Possession

32%Watford

Shots

12Watford

Pass accuracy

46%Watford

Statistics

WatfordChelsea
Overview
32%Possession68%
12Total Shots16
1Corners6
8Fouls5
Shots
12Total Shots16
3On Target10
5Off Target2
4Blocked4
8Inside Box11
4Outside Box5
Passing
32%Possession68%
373Total Passes793
292Accurate Passes710
78%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
8Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls5
4Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Watford vs Chelsea

Chelsea beat Watford 2-1 in Premier League on November 2, 2019.

Goals: T. Abraham (5'), C. Pulisic (55'), Deulofeu (80' pen).

Chelsea controlled possession (68%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.