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Watford vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Watford
Watford
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Chelsea
Chelsea
R. Pereyra 45+3'
E. Hazard 58' (pen), 45+1'
12/26/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Watford29%
×Draw25%
Chelsea46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
1.23
Chelsea
1.60

Chelsea creates 30% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 201 away

creates per match

Watford
1.21
Chelsea
1.59

allows per match

Watford
1.61
Chelsea
1.26

finishing

Watford+0.00on par
Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Watford or draw
54%
Watford or Chelsea
75%
Draw or Chelsea
71%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
12%
Chelsea wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
71%
Watford 2+ goals
35%
Watford 3+ goals
13%
Chelsea 1+ goals
80%
Chelsea 2+ goals
47%
Chelsea 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
39%
Chelsea (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 201 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Chelsea defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chelsea attack 1.59 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Watford scores more
29%
level
25%
Chelsea scores more
46%

Chelsea at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. HazardChelseaChelsea · F
8.6

Match Events

16'
A. Mariappa← C. Kabasele
43'
C. Hudson-Odoi← Pedro
45+1'
E. Hazard↳ M. Kovačić
45+3'
R. Pereyra↳ J. Holebas
58'
Ben Foster
58'
E. HazardPenalty
67'
Domingos Quina← K. Sema
80'
R. Barkley← M. Kovačić
82'
I. Success← Deulofeu
85'
Emerson← C. Hudson-Odoi

Possession

35%Watford

Shots

11Watford

Pass accuracy

47%Watford

Statistics

WatfordChelsea
Overview
35%Possession65%
11Total Shots10
3Corners4
15Fouls5
Shots
11Total Shots10
2On Target4
6Off Target5
3Blocked1
8Inside Box8
3Outside Box2
Passing
35%Possession65%
392Total Passes729
305Accurate Passes646
78%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls5
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides2

Premier League: Watford 1–2 Chelsea

Chelsea beat Watford 2-1 in Premier League on December 26, 2018.

Goals: E. Hazard (45+1', 58' pen), R. Pereyra (45+3').

Chelsea controlled possession (65%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.