Watford 4–1 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chelsea

R. Pereyra 90+1'

Deulofeu 88'

D. Janmaat 84'

T. Deeney 42' (pen)

E. Hazard 82'

2/5/2018

Premier League · Round 26Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Watford29%

×Draw25%

Chelsea46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.60

Watford

1.23

Chelsea

1.60

Chelsea creates 30% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 201 away

1.21

creates per match

1.59

1.61

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Watford

1.21

Chelsea

1.59

allows per match

Watford

1.61

Chelsea

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Watford or draw

54%

Watford or Chelsea

75%

Draw or Chelsea

71%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

12%

Chelsea wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

35%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Chelsea 1+ goals

80%

Chelsea 2+ goals

47%

Chelsea 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

39%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 201 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Chelsea defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chelsea attack 1.59 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Watford scores more

29%

level

25%

Chelsea scores more

46%

Chelsea at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Deulofeu

Watford · F

8.6

Match Events

25'

30'

30'

34'

42'

T. DeeneyPenalty

45'

50'

58'

62'

64'

O. Giroud← Pedro

65'

R. Pereyra← Richarlison

82'

E. Hazard

84'

D. Janmaat↳ R. Pereyra

88'

Deulofeu↳ A. Doucouré

89'

A. Carrillo← Deulofeu

90+3'

A. Gray← T. Deeney

90+1'

R. Pereyra↳ A. Doucouré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordChelsea

Overview

44%Possession56%

21Total Shots7

6Corners2

11Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots7

8On Target3

9Off Target2

4Blocked2

11Inside Box5

10Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

407Total Passes512

326Accurate Passes422

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls8

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1