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Watford vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Watford
Watford
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Chelsea
Chelsea
E. Capoue 55'
Diego Costa 87'
M. Batshuayi 80'
8/20/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Watford29%
×Draw25%
Chelsea46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
1.23
Chelsea
1.60

Chelsea creates 30% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 201 away

creates per match

Watford
1.21
Chelsea
1.59

allows per match

Watford
1.61
Chelsea
1.26

finishing

Watford+0.00on par
Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Watford or draw
54%
Watford or Chelsea
75%
Draw or Chelsea
71%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
12%
Chelsea wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
71%
Watford 2+ goals
35%
Watford 3+ goals
13%
Chelsea 1+ goals
80%
Chelsea 2+ goals
47%
Chelsea 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
39%
Chelsea (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 201 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Chelsea defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chelsea attack 1.59 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Watford scores more
29%
level
25%
Chelsea scores more
46%

Chelsea at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. HazardChelseaChelsea · M
7.9

Match Events

19'
Troy Deeney
20'
Gary Cahill
55'
E. Capoue↳ A. Guédioura
56'
Diego Costa
69'
Miguel Britos
70'
José Holebas
71'
V. Moses← Pedro
73'
M. Batshuayi← Oscar
78'
Fàbregas← N. Matić
80'
M. Batshuayi
84'
A. Doucouré← E. Capoue
87'
Diego Costa↳ Fàbregas
88'
M. Vydra← A. Guédioura
90'
Valon Behrami
90'
Eden Hazard
90'
C. Zúñiga← J. Holebas

Possession

37%Watford

Shots

6Watford

Pass accuracy

47%Watford

Statistics

WatfordChelsea
Overview
37%Possession63%
6Total Shots13
0Corners5
20Fouls10
Shots
6Total Shots13
2On Target4
2Off Target6
2Blocked3
3Inside Box6
3Outside Box7
Passing
37%Possession63%
330Total Passes560
251Accurate Passes488
76%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
20Fouls10
4Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Watford vs Chelsea

Chelsea beat Watford 2-1 in Premier League on August 20, 2016.

Goals: E. Capoue (55'), M. Batshuayi (80'), Diego Costa (87').

Chelsea controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.