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Watford vs Burnley — Championship 2025

Watford
Watford
Preview
14:00
Burnley
Burnley
10/10/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 9Vicarage Road
Big match
47%
Burnley
model favours
25%28%47%

Watford score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Watford25%
×Draw28%
Burnley47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
0.91
Burnley
1.37

Burnley creates 51% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 16 away

creates per match

Watford
1.26
Burnley
1.69

allows per match

Watford
1.05
Burnley
0.56

finishing

Watford+0.00on par
Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Watford or draw
53%
Watford or Burnley
72%
Draw or Burnley
75%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
8%
Burnley wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
60%
Watford 2+ goals
23%
Watford 3+ goals
6%
Burnley 1+ goals
75%
Burnley 2+ goals
40%
Burnley 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
34%
Burnley (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.26 + Burnley defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.91

Burnley attack 1.69 + Watford defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Watford scores more
25%
level
28%
Burnley scores more
47%

Burnley at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%
  • Watford have scored in 10 games running
  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burnley win just 9% of their away games
  • Both teams score in 80% of Watford’s matches
  • Watford outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Watford
DLLLL
Burnley
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Watford face Burnley (Championship)

Championship returns with Watford hosting Burnley. Match starts October 10, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Watford host Burnley at Vicarage Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.