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Watford vs Burnley — Premier League 2026

Watford
Watford
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burnley
Burnley
1/19/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Watford41%
×Draw26%
Burnley34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
1.45
Burnley
1.29

Watford creates 12% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 156 away

creates per match

Watford
1.21
Burnley
0.96

allows per match

Watford
1.61
Burnley
1.69

finishing

Watford+0.00on par
Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Watford or draw
66%
Watford or Burnley
74%
Draw or Burnley
59%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
20%
Burnley wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
77%
Watford 2+ goals
42%
Watford 3+ goals
18%
Burnley 1+ goals
72%
Burnley 2+ goals
37%
Burnley 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
55%
Burnley (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Burnley defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.45

Burnley attack 0.96 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Watford scores more
41%
level
26%
Burnley scores more
34%

Watford at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
T. HeatonBurnleyBurnley · G
7.8

Match Events

56'
I. Success← K. Sema
63'
Ben Mee
77'
M. Britos← Kiko Femenía
79'
Gerard Deulofeu
82'
Phil Bardsley

Possession

54%Watford

Shots

9Watford

Pass accuracy

54%Watford

Statistics

WatfordBurnley
Overview
54%Possession46%
9Total Shots12
1Corners7
14Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots12
4On Target3
3Off Target7
2Blocked2
6Inside Box9
3Outside Box3
Passing
54%Possession46%
412Total Passes330
309Accurate Passes210
75%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides8

Premier League: Watford 0–0 Burnley

Watford and Burnley drew 0-0 in Premier League on January 19, 2019.

Watford controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.