Watford 0–4 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Bournemouth

C. Wilson 47'

J. King 45', 33' (pen)

D. Brooks 14'

10/6/2018

Premier League · Round 8Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Watford42%

×Draw24%

Bournemouth34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.39

Watford

1.56

Bournemouth

1.39

Watford creates 12% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 141 away

1.21

creates per match

1.16

1.61

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Watford

1.21

Bournemouth

1.16

allows per match

Watford

1.61

Bournemouth

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Watford or draw

66%

Watford or Bournemouth

76%

Draw or Bournemouth

58%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

21%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

79%

Watford 2+ goals

46%

Watford 3+ goals

21%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

75%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

40%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

55%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.92 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Bournemouth defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bournemouth attack 1.16 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Watford scores more

42%

level

24%

Bournemouth scores more

34%

Watford at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. King

Bournemouth · F

9.4

Match Events

11'

14'

22'

32'

32'

33'

J. KingPenalty

45'

J. King↳ C. Wilson

47'

C. Wilson↳ R. Fraser

55'

A. Mariappa← W. Hughes

55'

I. Success← A. Gray

66'

J. Stanislas← R. Fraser

68'

José Holebas

70'

D. Gosling← D. Brooks

74'

78'

87'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordBournemouth

Overview

47%Possession53%

14Total Shots10

10Corners7

11Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots10

2On Target7

2Off Target3

10Blocked0

8Inside Box9

6Outside Box1

Passing

47%Possession53%

374Total Passes426

291Accurate Passes355

78%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

5Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2