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Bournemouth vs Watford — Premier League 2026

Bournemouth
Bournemouth
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Watford
Watford
R. Pereyra 90+2'
T. Deeney 65'
A. Doucouré 42'
1/12/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Bournemouth47%
×Draw25%
Watford28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bournemouth
1.60
Watford
1.19

Bournemouth creates 34% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 112 away

creates per match

Bournemouth
1.41
Watford
0.96

allows per match

Bournemouth
1.42
Watford
1.79

finishing

Bournemouth+0.00on par
Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw
72%
Bournemouth or Watford
75%
Draw or Watford
53%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+
24%
Watford wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals
80%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
47%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
22%
Watford 1+ goals
70%
Watford 2+ goals
33%
Watford 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)
62%
Watford (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.42 · 143 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.79 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.41 + Watford defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.60

Watford attack 0.96 + Bournemouth defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bournemouth scores more
47%
level
25%
Watford scores more
28%

Bournemouth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
A. DoucouréWatfordWatford · M
8.6

Match Events

13'
Adam Smith
42'
A. Doucouré↳ I. Sarr
57'
Troy Deeney
59'
L. Cook← D. Gosling
59'
P. Billing← J. Lerma
65'
T. Deeney↳ A. Doucouré
75'
S. Surridge← H. Wilson
82'
R. Pereyra← I. Sarr
86'
Domingos Quina← A. Doucouré
90+1'
A. Gray← Deulofeu
90+2'
R. Pereyra

Possession

56%Bournemouth

Shots

10Bournemouth

Pass accuracy

52%Bournemouth

Statistics

BournemouthWatford
Overview
56%Possession44%
10Total Shots18
5Corners5
3Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots18
1On Target6
7Off Target6
2Blocked6
2Inside Box13
8Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
536Total Passes411
420Accurate Passes296
78%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
3Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides5

Match Recap: Bournemouth vs Watford

Watford beat Bournemouth 3-0 in Premier League on January 12, 2020.

Goals: A. Doucouré (42'), T. Deeney (65'), R. Pereyra (90+2').

Bournemouth controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 18.

The match was played at Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth, Dorset.