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Waterhouse vs Vere United — Premier League 2019

Waterhouse
Waterhouse
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Vere United
Vere United
10/16/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Drewsland Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Waterhouse53%
×Draw26%
Vere United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waterhouse
1.53
Vere United
0.86

Waterhouse creates 78% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 76 away

creates per match

Waterhouse
1.39
Vere United
0.74

allows per match

Waterhouse
0.98
Vere United
1.67

finishing

Waterhouse+0.00on par
Vere United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterhouse ↓

Vere United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Waterhouse or draw
79%
Waterhouse or Vere United
74%
Draw or Vere United
47%

Winning margin

Waterhouse wins by 2+
27%
Vere United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Waterhouse 1+ goals
78%
Waterhouse 2+ goals
45%
Waterhouse 3+ goals
20%
Vere United 1+ goals
58%
Vere United 2+ goals
21%
Vere United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Waterhouse (draw refunded)
71%
Vere United (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterhouse at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 104 matches

Vere United away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterhouse attack 1.39 + Vere United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Vere United attack 0.74 + Waterhouse defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Waterhouse scores more
53%
level
26%
Vere United scores more
21%

Waterhouse at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Waterhouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Waterhouse vs Vere United

Waterhouse beat Vere United 2-1 in Premier League on October 16, 2024.

The match was played at Drewsland Stadium in Kingston.