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Vere United vs Waterhouse — Premier League 2019

Vere United
Vere United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Waterhouse
Waterhouse
2/12/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Vere United23%
×Draw28%
Waterhouse49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vere United
0.80
Waterhouse
1.32

Waterhouse creates 65% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 99 away

creates per match

Vere United
0.73
Waterhouse
1.35

allows per match

Vere United
1.29
Waterhouse
0.87

finishing

Vere United+0.00on par
Waterhouse+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vere United ↓

Waterhouse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vere United or draw
51%
Vere United or Waterhouse
72%
Draw or Waterhouse
77%

Winning margin

Vere United wins by 2+
7%
Waterhouse wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Vere United 1+ goals
55%
Vere United 2+ goals
19%
Vere United 3+ goals
5%
Waterhouse 1+ goals
73%
Waterhouse 2+ goals
38%
Waterhouse 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vere United (draw refunded)
32%
Waterhouse (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vere United at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Waterhouse away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vere United attack 0.73 + Waterhouse defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.80

Waterhouse attack 1.35 + Vere United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vere United scores more
23%
level
28%
Waterhouse scores more
49%

Waterhouse at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Waterhouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Vere United 0–1 Waterhouse

Waterhouse beat Vere United 1-0 in Premier League on February 12, 2024.

The match was played at Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex in Kingston.