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Waterhouse vs UWI — Premier League 2019

Waterhouse
Waterhouse
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
UWI
UWI
1/6/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Waterhouse Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Waterhouse54%
×Draw25%
UWI21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waterhouse
1.59
UWI
0.89

Waterhouse creates 79% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 14 away

creates per match

Waterhouse
1.39
UWI
0.79

allows per match

Waterhouse
0.98
UWI
1.79

finishing

Waterhouse+0.00on par
UWI+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterhouse ↓

UWI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Waterhouse or draw
79%
Waterhouse or UWI
75%
Draw or UWI
46%

Winning margin

Waterhouse wins by 2+
28%
UWI wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Waterhouse 1+ goals
80%
Waterhouse 2+ goals
47%
Waterhouse 3+ goals
21%
UWI 1+ goals
59%
UWI 2+ goals
22%
UWI 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Waterhouse (draw refunded)
72%
UWI (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterhouse at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 104 matches

UWI away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterhouse attack 1.39 + UWI defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.59

UWI attack 0.79 + Waterhouse defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Waterhouse scores more
54%
level
25%
UWI scores more
21%

Waterhouse at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Waterhouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Waterhouse vs UWI

Waterhouse and UWI drew 2-2 in Premier League on January 6, 2020.

The match was played at Waterhouse Stadium in Kingston.