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UWI vs Waterhouse — Premier League 2019

UWI
UWI
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Waterhouse
Waterhouse
10/6/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6UWI Mona Bowl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

UWI23%
×Draw26%
Waterhouse51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UWI
0.94
Waterhouse
1.54

Waterhouse creates 64% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 99 away

creates per match

UWI
1.00
Waterhouse
1.35

allows per match

UWI
1.73
Waterhouse
0.87

finishing

UWI+0.00on par
Waterhouse+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWI ↓

Waterhouse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

UWI or draw
49%
UWI or Waterhouse
74%
Draw or Waterhouse
77%

Winning margin

UWI wins by 2+
8%
Waterhouse wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

UWI 1+ goals
61%
UWI 2+ goals
24%
UWI 3+ goals
7%
Waterhouse 1+ goals
79%
Waterhouse 2+ goals
45%
Waterhouse 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

UWI (draw refunded)
31%
Waterhouse (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWI at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Waterhouse away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWI attack 1.00 + Waterhouse defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Waterhouse attack 1.35 + UWI defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

UWI scores more
23%
level
26%
Waterhouse scores more
51%

Waterhouse at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Waterhouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: UWI 0–2 Waterhouse

Waterhouse beat UWI 2-0 in Premier League on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at UWI Mona Bowl in Kingston.