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Waterhouse vs Tivoli Gardens — Premier League 2019

Waterhouse
Waterhouse
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tivoli Gardens
Tivoli Gardens
4/16/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 34Waterhouse Mini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Waterhouse44%
×Draw26%
Tivoli Gardens29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waterhouse
1.42
Tivoli Gardens
1.11

Waterhouse creates 28% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 100 away

creates per match

Waterhouse
1.39
Tivoli Gardens
1.24

allows per match

Waterhouse
0.98
Tivoli Gardens
1.44

finishing

Waterhouse+0.00on par
Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterhouse ↓

Tivoli Gardens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Waterhouse or draw
71%
Waterhouse or Tivoli Gardens
74%
Draw or Tivoli Gardens
56%

Winning margin

Waterhouse wins by 2+
21%
Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Waterhouse 1+ goals
76%
Waterhouse 2+ goals
41%
Waterhouse 3+ goals
17%
Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals
67%
Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals
30%
Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Waterhouse (draw refunded)
60%
Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterhouse at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 104 matches

Tivoli Gardens away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterhouse attack 1.39 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.24 + Waterhouse defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Waterhouse scores more
44%
level
26%
Tivoli Gardens scores more
29%

Waterhouse at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Waterhouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Waterhouse 1–0 Tivoli Gardens

Waterhouse beat Tivoli Gardens 1-0 in Premier League on April 16, 2026.

The match was played at Waterhouse Mini Stadium in Kingston.