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Tivoli Gardens vs Waterhouse — Premier League 2019

Tivoli Gardens
Tivoli Gardens
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Waterhouse
Waterhouse
3/16/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Edward Seaga Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Tivoli Gardens34%
×Draw28%
Waterhouse38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tivoli Gardens
1.15
Waterhouse
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 99 away

creates per match

Tivoli Gardens
1.43
Waterhouse
1.35

allows per match

Tivoli Gardens
1.10
Waterhouse
0.87

finishing

Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par
Waterhouse+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli Gardens ↓

Waterhouse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tivoli Gardens or draw
62%
Tivoli Gardens or Waterhouse
72%
Draw or Waterhouse
66%

Winning margin

Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+
14%
Waterhouse wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals
68%
Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals
32%
Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals
11%
Waterhouse 1+ goals
71%
Waterhouse 2+ goals
35%
Waterhouse 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)
47%
Waterhouse (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli Gardens at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 99 matches

Waterhouse away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.43 + Waterhouse defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.15

Waterhouse attack 1.35 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tivoli Gardens scores more
34%
level
28%
Waterhouse scores more
38%

Waterhouse at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Waterhouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tivoli Gardens vs Waterhouse

Tivoli Gardens beat Waterhouse 3-2 in Premier League on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Edward Seaga Sports Complex in Kingston.