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Waterhouse vs Lime Hall Academy — Premier League 2019

Waterhouse
Waterhouse
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lime Hall Academy
Lime Hall Academy
1/28/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Drewsland Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Waterhouse71%
×Draw19%
Lime Hall Academy11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waterhouse
2.12
Lime Hall Academy
0.68

Waterhouse creates 212% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 13 away

creates per match

Waterhouse
1.39
Lime Hall Academy
0.38

allows per match

Waterhouse
0.98
Lime Hall Academy
2.85

finishing

Waterhouse+0.00on par
Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterhouse ↓

Lime Hall Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Waterhouse or draw
89%
Waterhouse or Lime Hall Academy
81%
Draw or Lime Hall Academy
29%

Winning margin

Waterhouse wins by 2+
46%
Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Waterhouse 1+ goals
88%
Waterhouse 2+ goals
62%
Waterhouse 3+ goals
35%
Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals
49%
Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals
15%
Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Waterhouse (draw refunded)
87%
Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterhouse at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 104 matches

Lime Hall Academy away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterhouse attack 1.39 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.12

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.38 + Waterhouse defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Waterhouse scores more
71%
level
19%
Lime Hall Academy scores more
11%

Waterhouse at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Waterhouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Waterhouse vs Lime Hall Academy

Waterhouse beat Lime Hall Academy 1-0 in Premier League on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Drewsland Stadium in Kingston.