Lime Hall Academy 1–3 Waterhouse: Result & Stats

Lime Hall Academy

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Waterhouse

11/5/2023

Premier League · Round 3Drax Hall Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lime Hall Academy15%

×Draw21%

Waterhouse64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lime Hall AcademyExpected goals in this matchWaterhouse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.91

Lime Hall Academy

0.78

Waterhouse

1.91

Waterhouse creates 145% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 99 away

0.69

creates per match

1.35

2.46

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Lime Hall Academy

0.69

Waterhouse

1.35

allows per match

Lime Hall Academy

2.46

Waterhouse

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par

Waterhouse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lime Hall Academy ↓

Waterhouse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lime Hall Academy or draw

36%

Lime Hall Academy or Waterhouse

79%

Draw or Waterhouse

85%

Winning margin

Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+

4%

Waterhouse wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals

54%

Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals

18%

Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals

4%

Waterhouse 1+ goals

85%

Waterhouse 2+ goals

57%

Waterhouse 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)

19%

Waterhouse (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lime Hall Academy at home — creates 0.69, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Waterhouse away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.69 + Waterhouse defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.78

Waterhouse attack 1.35 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Lime Hall Academy scores more

15%

level

21%

Waterhouse scores more

64%

Waterhouse at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Waterhouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff