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Waterhouse vs Harbour View — Premier League 2019

Waterhouse
Waterhouse
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Harbour View
Harbour View
9/16/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Waterhouse Mini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Waterhouse48%
×Draw26%
Harbour View26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waterhouse
1.46
Harbour View
1.00

Waterhouse creates 46% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 98 away

creates per match

Waterhouse
1.39
Harbour View
1.02

allows per match

Waterhouse
0.98
Harbour View
1.52

finishing

Waterhouse+0.00on par
Harbour View+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterhouse ↓

Harbour View →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Waterhouse or draw
74%
Waterhouse or Harbour View
74%
Draw or Harbour View
52%

Winning margin

Waterhouse wins by 2+
24%
Harbour View wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Waterhouse 1+ goals
77%
Waterhouse 2+ goals
43%
Waterhouse 3+ goals
18%
Harbour View 1+ goals
63%
Harbour View 2+ goals
26%
Harbour View 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Waterhouse (draw refunded)
65%
Harbour View (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterhouse at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 104 matches

Harbour View away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.52 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterhouse attack 1.39 + Harbour View defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

Harbour View attack 1.02 + Waterhouse defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Waterhouse scores more
48%
level
26%
Harbour View scores more
26%

Waterhouse at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Waterhouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Waterhouse 1–2 Harbour View

Harbour View beat Waterhouse 2-1 in Premier League on September 16, 2025.

The match was played at Waterhouse Mini Stadium in Kingston.