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Harbour View vs Waterhouse — Premier League 2019

Harbour View
Harbour View
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Waterhouse
Waterhouse
4/19/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 35Harbour View Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Harbour View31%
×Draw28%
Waterhouse41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harbour View
1.07
Waterhouse
1.26

Waterhouse creates 18% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 99 away

creates per match

Harbour View
1.28
Waterhouse
1.35

allows per match

Harbour View
1.17
Waterhouse
0.87

finishing

Harbour View+0.00on par
Waterhouse+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harbour View ↓

Waterhouse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Harbour View or draw
59%
Harbour View or Waterhouse
72%
Draw or Waterhouse
69%

Winning margin

Harbour View wins by 2+
12%
Waterhouse wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Harbour View 1+ goals
66%
Harbour View 2+ goals
29%
Harbour View 3+ goals
9%
Waterhouse 1+ goals
72%
Waterhouse 2+ goals
36%
Waterhouse 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Harbour View (draw refunded)
44%
Waterhouse (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harbour View at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 102 matches

Waterhouse away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harbour View attack 1.28 + Waterhouse defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.07

Waterhouse attack 1.35 + Harbour View defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Harbour View scores more
31%
level
28%
Waterhouse scores more
41%

Waterhouse at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Waterhouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Harbour View 0–1 Waterhouse

Waterhouse beat Harbour View 1-0 in Premier League on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Harbour View Stadium in Kingston.