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Waterford vs Cobh Ramblers — First Division 2019

Waterford
Waterford
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cobh Ramblers
Cobh Ramblers
5/12/2023First DivisionFirst Division · Round 14Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Waterford56%
×Draw22%
Cobh Ramblers23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waterford
1.99
Cobh Ramblers
1.19

Waterford creates 67% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 120 away

creates per match

Waterford
2.28
Cobh Ramblers
1.23

allows per match

Waterford
1.14
Cobh Ramblers
1.71

finishing

Waterford+0.00on par
Cobh Ramblers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Cobh Ramblers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Waterford or draw
77%
Waterford or Cobh Ramblers
78%
Draw or Cobh Ramblers
44%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+
33%
Cobh Ramblers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals
86%
Waterford 2+ goals
59%
Waterford 3+ goals
32%
Cobh Ramblers 1+ goals
70%
Cobh Ramblers 2+ goals
33%
Cobh Ramblers 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)
71%
Cobh Ramblers (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

Cobh Ramblers away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.71 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 2.28 + Cobh Ramblers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.99

Cobh Ramblers attack 1.23 + Waterford defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Waterford scores more
56%
level
22%
Cobh Ramblers scores more
23%

Waterford at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Waterford 5–0 Cobh Ramblers

Waterford beat Cobh Ramblers 5-0 in First Division on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Waterford.