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Cobh Ramblers vs Waterford — First Division 2019

Cobh Ramblers
Cobh Ramblers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Waterford
Waterford
6/23/2023First DivisionFirst Division · Round 20St. Colman's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Cobh Ramblers23%
×Draw23%
Waterford54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobh Ramblers
1.16
Waterford
1.88

Waterford creates 62% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 37 away

creates per match

Cobh Ramblers
1.47
Waterford
2.32

allows per match

Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Waterford
0.84

finishing

Cobh Ramblers+0.00on par
Waterford+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobh Ramblers ↓

Waterford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cobh Ramblers or draw
46%
Cobh Ramblers or Waterford
77%
Draw or Waterford
77%

Winning margin

Cobh Ramblers wins by 2+
9%
Waterford wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Cobh Ramblers 1+ goals
69%
Cobh Ramblers 2+ goals
32%
Cobh Ramblers 3+ goals
11%
Waterford 1+ goals
85%
Waterford 2+ goals
56%
Waterford 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Cobh Ramblers (draw refunded)
30%
Waterford (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobh Ramblers at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 118 matches

Waterford away — creates 2.32, concedes 0.84 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobh Ramblers attack 1.47 + Waterford defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.16

Waterford attack 2.32 + Cobh Ramblers defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cobh Ramblers scores more
23%
level
23%
Waterford scores more
54%

Waterford at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cobh Ramblers vs Waterford

Cobh Ramblers beat Waterford 1-0 in First Division on June 23, 2023.

The match was played at St. Colman's Park in Cobh.