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Watanga vs Sandi — LFA First Division 2020

Watanga
Watanga
FT
1 – 0
Sandi
Sandi
12/12/2021LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 7Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Watanga67%
×Draw19%
Sandi15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watanga
2.28
Sandi
0.96

Watanga creates 138% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 23 away

creates per match

Watanga
1.95
Sandi
0.96

allows per match

Watanga
0.97
Sandi
2.61

finishing

Watanga+0.00on par
Sandi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watanga ↓

Sandi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Watanga or draw
85%
Watanga or Sandi
81%
Draw or Sandi
33%

Winning margin

Watanga wins by 2+
44%
Sandi wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Watanga 1+ goals
90%
Watanga 2+ goals
66%
Watanga 3+ goals
39%
Sandi 1+ goals
62%
Sandi 2+ goals
25%
Sandi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Watanga (draw refunded)
82%
Sandi (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watanga at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Sandi away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watanga attack 1.95 + Sandi defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.28

Sandi attack 0.96 + Watanga defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Watanga scores more
67%
level
19%
Sandi scores more
15%

Watanga at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Watanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Watanga 1 – 0 Sandi

Watanga beat Sandi 1-0 in LFA First Division on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.