Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sandi vs Watanga — LFA First Division 2020

Sandi
Sandi
FT
1 – 2
Watanga
Watanga
3/20/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 18Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sandi20%
×Draw23%
Watanga57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandi
0.95
Watanga
1.79

Watanga creates 88% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 74 away

creates per match

Sandi
1.12
Watanga
1.57

allows per match

Sandi
2.00
Watanga
0.77

finishing

Sandi+0.00on par
Watanga+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandi ↓

Watanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sandi or draw
43%
Sandi or Watanga
77%
Draw or Watanga
80%

Winning margin

Sandi wins by 2+
7%
Watanga wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Sandi 1+ goals
61%
Sandi 2+ goals
25%
Sandi 3+ goals
7%
Watanga 1+ goals
83%
Watanga 2+ goals
53%
Watanga 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Sandi (draw refunded)
26%
Watanga (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandi at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.00 · 25 matches

Watanga away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.77 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandi attack 1.12 + Watanga defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

Watanga attack 1.57 + Sandi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sandi scores more
20%
level
23%
Watanga scores more
57%

Watanga at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Watanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sandi 1 – 2 Watanga

Watanga beat Sandi 2-1 in LFA First Division on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium in Kakata.