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Watanga vs Nimba FC — LFA First Division 2020

Watanga
Watanga
FT
3 – 2
Nimba FC
Nimba FC
11/15/2020LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 3Blue Field Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Watanga62%
×Draw20%
Nimba FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watanga
2.13
Nimba FC
1.04

Watanga creates 105% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 10 away

creates per match

Watanga
1.95
Nimba FC
1.10

allows per match

Watanga
0.97
Nimba FC
2.30

finishing

Watanga+0.00on par
Nimba FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watanga ↓

Nimba FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Watanga or draw
82%
Watanga or Nimba FC
80%
Draw or Nimba FC
38%

Winning margin

Watanga wins by 2+
39%
Nimba FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Watanga 1+ goals
88%
Watanga 2+ goals
63%
Watanga 3+ goals
35%
Nimba FC 1+ goals
65%
Nimba FC 2+ goals
28%
Nimba FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Watanga (draw refunded)
78%
Nimba FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watanga at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Nimba FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watanga attack 1.95 + Nimba FC defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.13

Nimba FC attack 1.10 + Watanga defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Watanga scores more
62%
level
20%
Nimba FC scores more
18%

Watanga at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Watanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Watanga vs Nimba FC

Watanga beat Nimba FC 3-2 in LFA First Division on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Blue Field Sports Ground in Monrovia.