Nimba FC 0–2 Watanga: Result & Stats

Nimba FC

FT

0 – 2

Watanga

3/21/2021

LFA First Division · Round 14Ganta Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nimba FC10%

×Draw21%

Watanga69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nimba FCExpected goals in this matchWatanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.56

1.88

Nimba FC

0.56

Watanga

1.88

Watanga creates 236% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 74 away

0.36

creates per match

1.57

2.18

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Nimba FC

0.36

Watanga

1.57

allows per match

Nimba FC

2.18

Watanga

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nimba FC+0.00on par

Watanga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nimba FC ↓

Watanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–116%

0–215%

0–310%

0–45%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–22%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nimba FC or draw

31%

Nimba FC or Watanga

79%

Draw or Watanga

90%

Winning margin

Nimba FC wins by 2+

2%

Watanga wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Nimba FC 1+ goals

43%

Nimba FC 2+ goals

11%

Nimba FC 3+ goals

2%

Watanga 1+ goals

85%

Watanga 2+ goals

56%

Watanga 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Nimba FC (draw refunded)

13%

Watanga (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nimba FC at home — creates 0.36, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

Watanga away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.77 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nimba FC attack 0.36 + Watanga defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.56

Watanga attack 1.57 + Nimba FC defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Nimba FC scores more

10%

level

21%

Watanga scores more

69%

Watanga at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Watanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff