Tianjin Teda 1–0 Hangzhou Greentown: Result & Stats

Tianjin Teda

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hangzhou Greentown

M. Diagne 74'

4/10/2016

Super League · Round 4Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Tianjin Teda42%

×Draw24%

Hangzhou Greentown34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tianjin TedaExpected goals in this matchHangzhou Greentown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.41

Tianjin Teda

1.59

Hangzhou Greentown

1.41

Tianjin Teda creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 30 away

1.64

creates per match

1.64

1.18

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Tianjin Teda

1.64

Hangzhou Greentown

1.64

allows per match

Tianjin Teda

1.18

Hangzhou Greentown

1.54

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Tianjin Teda-0.20scores less

Hangzhou Greentown-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Teda ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Tianjin Teda or draw

66%

Tianjin Teda or Hangzhou Greentown

76%

Draw or Hangzhou Greentown

58%

Winning margin

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+

21%

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals

80%

Tianjin Teda 2+ goals

47%

Tianjin Teda 3+ goals

21%

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

76%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

41%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)

55%

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Teda at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.54 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Teda attack 1.64 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.59

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.64 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tianjin Teda scores more

42%

level

24%

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

34%

Tianjin Teda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tianjin Teda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

Beom-Seok Oh

Hangzhou Greentown

7.8

Match Events

38'

Beom Seok Oh

46'

Ge Zhen← Cao Haiqing

62'

Wang Qiuming← Zhou Tong

65'

Denilson Gabionetta← D. Angan

66'

M. Diagne← Wagner

74'

M. Diagne↳ Li Benjian

77'

Cheng Mouyi← Luo Jing

90'

Guo Hao← Hu Rentian

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TianjinHangzhou

Overview

58%Possession42%

23Total Shots2

6Corners0

0Fouls0

Shots

23Total Shots2

3On Target0

9Off Target2

11Blocked0

11Inside Box0

12Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

440Total Passes316

329Accurate Passes221

75%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

0Fouls0

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3