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Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda — Super League 2026

Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
F. Andrijasevic 90'
Yago Cariello 45'
8/20/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Huizhou Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown57%
×Draw21%
Tianjin Teda22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hangzhou Greentown
2.10
Tianjin Teda
1.23

Hangzhou Greentown creates 71% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown
2.14
Tianjin Teda
0.98

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown
1.48
Tianjin Teda
2.06

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown-0.54scores less
Tianjin Teda-0.06on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Tianjin Teda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw
78%
Hangzhou Greentown or Tianjin Teda
79%
Draw or Tianjin Teda
43%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
35%
Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
88%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
62%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
35%
Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
71%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
35%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
72%
Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.48 · 5 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.06 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 2.14 + Tianjin Teda defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.10

Tianjin Teda attack 0.98 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more
57%
level
21%
Tianjin Teda scores more
22%

Hangzhou Greentown at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
Zhao BoHangzhou GreentownHangzhou Greentown · G
8.3

Match Events

45'
Yago Cariello↳ A. Mitrita
65'
Zhang Jiaqi← Yago Cariello
67'
Xie Weijun← Wang Qiuming
67'
Huang Jiahui← Guo Hao
80'
F. Andrijasevic← Y. Wang
80'
D. Owusu-Sekyere← Cheng Jin
82'
Liu Haofan
83'
Yang Zihao← Sun Ming-Him
83'
J. Liu← Ba Dun
89'
Li Yongjia← C. Salvador
90+2'
Li Yongjia
90'
F. Andrijasevic↳ D. Owusu-Sekyere

Possession

52%Hangzhou

Shots

11Hangzhou

Pass accuracy

51%Hangzhou

Statistics

HangzhouTianjin
Overview
52%Possession48%
11Total Shots11
2.04Expected Goals (xG)1.15
2Corners7
14Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots11
4On Target6
5Off Target3
2Blocked2
8Inside Box7
3Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
492Total Passes444
438Accurate Passes380
89%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda

Hangzhou Greentown beat Tianjin Teda 2-0 in Super League on August 20, 2025.

Goals: Yago Cariello (45'), F. Andrijasevic (90').

Hangzhou Greentown controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium in Huizhou.