Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown — Super League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 27+ matches
Tianjin Teda47%
Hangzhou Greentown30%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tianjin Teda creates 30% more chances
Season form · 33 home / 27 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over60
- Under40
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes62
- No38
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tianjin Teda ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tianjin Teda at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches
Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.07 · 27 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tianjin Teda attack 1.48 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.77
Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.63 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.36
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Tianjin Teda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Tianjin Teda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
SHANGHAI SIPG
Shanghai Shenhua
Chengdu Better City
Beijing Guoan
Shandong LunengTianjin TedaHangzhou Greentown
Yunnan Yukun
Qingdao Youth Island
Henan Jianye
Dalian Zhixing
Sichuan Jiuniu
Wuhan Three Towns
Qingdao Jonoon
Meizhou Kejia
Changchun YataiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Tianjin Teda host Hangzhou Greentown on Sunday, 11 August 2024 at 12:00. The match is part of the Super League 2026/2027 season.
Super League: Tianjin Teda 3–2 Hangzhou Greentown
Tianjin Teda beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 in Super League on August 11, 2024.
Goals: A. Compagno (27' pen, 39'), Leonardo (61'), A. Ademi (63'), D. Owusu-Sekyere (65').
Hangzhou Greentown controlled possession (64%) and registered 18 shots to 11.
The match was played at TEDA Football Stadium in Tianjin.