Washington Spirit W 1–1 Utah Royals W

Washington Spirit W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Utah Royals W

R. Bernal 18'

M. Tanaka 84'

3/25/2026

NWSL Women · Group StageAudi Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Washington Spirit W48%

×Draw25%

Utah Royals W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Washington Spirit WExpected goals in this matchUtah Royals W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.09

Washington Spirit W

1.54

Utah Royals W

1.09

Washington Spirit W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 47 away

1.56

creates per match

1.04

1.15

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Washington Spirit W

1.56

Utah Royals W

1.04

allows per match

Washington Spirit W

1.15

Utah Royals W

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

Utah Royals W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Washington Spirit W ↓

Utah Royals W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Washington Spirit W or draw

73%

Washington Spirit W or Utah Royals W

75%

Draw or Utah Royals W

52%

Winning margin

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+

24%

Utah Royals W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals

79%

Washington Spirit W 2+ goals

45%

Washington Spirit W 3+ goals

20%

Utah Royals W 1+ goals

66%

Utah Royals W 2+ goals

30%

Utah Royals W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)

64%

Utah Royals W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Washington Spirit W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

Utah Royals W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Washington Spirit W attack 1.56 + Utah Royals W defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Utah Royals W attack 1.04 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Washington Spirit W scores more

48%

level

25%

Utah Royals W scores more

27%

Washington Spirit W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

R. Bernal

Washington Spirit W · M

7.3

Match Events

18'

R. Bernal

21'

Kameron Simmonds

46'

P. Metayer← K. Wiesner

61'

M. Tanaka← K. Palacios

61'

M. Moriya← J. Thomsen

61'

C. Brown← D. Pierre-Louis

62'

C. Martinez Ovando← D. Abiodun

72'

L. Prasnikar← C. Lacasse

72'

A. Spaanstra← K. N. Simmonds

82'

E. Tse← R. Kouassi

82'

L. Santos← S. Cantore

84'

M. Tanaka↳ C. Delzer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WashingtonUtah

Overview

49%Possession51%

6Total Shots7

2Corners1

5Fouls4

Shots

6Total Shots7

2On Target1

3Off Target3

1Blocked3

5Inside Box6

1Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

162Total Passes161

118Accurate Passes121

73%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

5Fouls4

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1