Washington Spirit W 3–3 Utah Royals W

Washington Spirit W

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Utah Royals W

C. Krueger 90'

M. Boade 20'

A. Hatch 17'

R. Bernal 36' (OG)

C. Kizer 22'

B. Mozingo 9'

5/17/2025

NWSL Women · Round 9Audi Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Washington Spirit W48%

×Draw25%

Utah Royals W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Washington Spirit WExpected goals in this matchUtah Royals W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.09

Washington Spirit W

1.54

Utah Royals W

1.09

Washington Spirit W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 47 away

1.56

creates per match

1.04

1.15

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Washington Spirit W

1.56

Utah Royals W

1.04

allows per match

Washington Spirit W

1.15

Utah Royals W

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

Utah Royals W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Washington Spirit W ↓

Utah Royals W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Washington Spirit W or draw

73%

Washington Spirit W or Utah Royals W

75%

Draw or Utah Royals W

52%

Winning margin

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+

24%

Utah Royals W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals

79%

Washington Spirit W 2+ goals

45%

Washington Spirit W 3+ goals

20%

Utah Royals W 1+ goals

66%

Utah Royals W 2+ goals

30%

Utah Royals W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)

64%

Utah Royals W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Washington Spirit W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

Utah Royals W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Washington Spirit W attack 1.56 + Utah Royals W defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Utah Royals W attack 1.04 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Washington Spirit W scores more

48%

level

25%

Utah Royals W scores more

27%

Washington Spirit W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

N. Rabano

Utah Royals W · D

7.5

Match Events

9'

17'

20'

22'

36'

R. BernalOwn goal

45+3'

Tara McKeown

46'

C. Krueger← M. Morris

46'

C. Brown← M. Boade

46'

D. Foederer← C. Zornoza

55'

A. Solorzano← C. Kizer

70'

B. St.Georges← B. Mozingo

77'

B. Ratcliffe← G. Monday

78'

H. Hershfelt← C. Bethune

83'

M. Pogarch← M. Tanaka

86'

K. Sylla← N. Miura

87'

Mandy McGlynn

89'

Ana Tejada

90'

C. Krueger↳ T. McKeown

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WashingtonUtah

Overview

56%Possession44%

29Total Shots9

5Corners0

14Fouls15

Shots

29Total Shots9

11On Target5

12Off Target1

6Blocked3

21Inside Box6

8Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

376Total Passes305

311Accurate Passes218

83%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves9

Discipline

14Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2