Washington Spirit W 2–2 Racing Louisville W

Washington Spirit W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Racing Louisville W

R. Kouassi 90'

S. Cantore 39'

S. Demelo 80' (pen)

R. Bernal 53' (OG)

8/16/2025

NWSL Women · Round 16Audi Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Washington Spirit W50%

×Draw25%

Racing Louisville W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Washington Spirit WExpected goals in this matchRacing Louisville W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.09

Washington Spirit W

1.65

Racing Louisville W

1.09

Washington Spirit W creates 51% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 67 away

1.56

creates per match

1.03

1.15

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Washington Spirit W

1.56

Racing Louisville W

1.03

allows per match

Washington Spirit W

1.15

Racing Louisville W

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Washington Spirit W ↓

Racing Louisville W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Washington Spirit W or draw

75%

Washington Spirit W or Racing Louisville W

75%

Draw or Racing Louisville W

50%

Winning margin

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+

27%

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals

81%

Washington Spirit W 2+ goals

49%

Washington Spirit W 3+ goals

23%

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

66%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

30%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)

67%

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Washington Spirit W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

Racing Louisville W away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.73 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Washington Spirit W attack 1.56 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.65

Racing Louisville W attack 1.03 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Washington Spirit W scores more

50%

level

25%

Racing Louisville W scores more

25%

Washington Spirit W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Demelo

Racing Louisville W · M

8.2

Match Events

27'

Leicy Santos

33'

Courtney Petersen

39'

S. Cantore↳ G. Monday

46'

T. Rodman← K. Wiesner

53'

R. BernalOwn goal

54'

R. Kouassi← S. Cantore

58'

Hal Hershfelt

61'

Ary Borges← M. DiGrande

61'

K. Fischer← S. Weber

77'

Ary BorgesPenalty cancelled

80'

S. DemeloPenalty

81'

B. Ratcliffe← C. Bethune

82'

85'

86'

90+6'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WashingtonRacing

Overview

60%Possession40%

13Total Shots11

7Corners3

11Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots11

5On Target4

5Off Target2

3Blocked5

4Inside Box8

9Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

377Total Passes246

306Accurate Passes172

81%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Washington Spirit W vs Racing Louisville W

Washington Spirit W and Racing Louisville W drew 2-2 in NWSL Women on August 16, 2025.

Goals: S. Cantore (39'), R. Bernal (53' o.g.), S. Demelo (80' pen), R. Kouassi (90').

Washington Spirit W controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Audi Field in Washington.

Washington Spirit W vs Racing Louisville W — NWSL Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Washington Spirit W vs Racing Louisville W