Racing Louisville W 0–2 Washington Spirit W

Racing Louisville W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Washington Spirit W

A. Hatch 74'

L. Santos 57'

4/12/2025

NWSL Women · Round 4Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Racing Louisville W35%

×Draw27%

Washington Spirit W38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Louisville WExpected goals in this matchWashington Spirit W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.29

Racing Louisville W

1.21

Washington Spirit W

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 85 away

1.25

creates per match

1.28

1.30

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Racing Louisville W

1.25

Washington Spirit W

1.28

allows per match

Racing Louisville W

1.30

Washington Spirit W

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

Washington Spirit W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw

62%

Racing Louisville W or Washington Spirit W

73%

Draw or Washington Spirit W

65%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

15%

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

70%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

34%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

12%

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals

72%

Washington Spirit W 2+ goals

37%

Washington Spirit W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

47%

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

Washington Spirit W away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.18 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 1.25 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Washington Spirit W attack 1.28 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more

35%

level

27%

Washington Spirit W scores more

38%

Washington Spirit W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Santos

Washington Spirit W · M

7.7

Match Events

46'

T. Rodman← C. Brown

46'

L. Santos← H. Stainbrook

46'

G. Monday← G. Carle

57'

L. Santos

60'

M. DiGrande← K. O'Kane

65'

65'

74'

78'

84'

U. Kanu← T. Flint

86'

C. Ricketts← B. Ratcliffe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingWashington

Overview

38%Possession62%

12Total Shots11

4Corners3

10Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots11

3On Target6

6Off Target4

3Blocked1

8Inside Box4

4Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

222Total Passes378

150Accurate Passes297

68%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls16

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1