Washington Spirit W 2–0 Portland Thorns W

Washington Spirit W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Portland Thorns W

C. Bethune 83'

G. Monday 27'

11/15/2025

NWSL Women · Semi-finalsAudi Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Washington Spirit W43%

×Draw25%

Portland Thorns W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Washington Spirit WExpected goals in this matchPortland Thorns W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.24

Washington Spirit W

1.50

Portland Thorns W

1.24

Washington Spirit W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 85 away

1.56

creates per match

1.33

1.15

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Washington Spirit W

1.56

Portland Thorns W

1.33

allows per match

Washington Spirit W

1.15

Portland Thorns W

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Washington Spirit W ↓

Portland Thorns W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Washington Spirit W or draw

69%

Washington Spirit W or Portland Thorns W

75%

Draw or Portland Thorns W

57%

Winning margin

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+

21%

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals

78%

Washington Spirit W 2+ goals

44%

Washington Spirit W 3+ goals

19%

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals

71%

Portland Thorns W 2+ goals

35%

Portland Thorns W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)

58%

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Washington Spirit W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

Portland Thorns W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.45 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Washington Spirit W attack 1.56 + Portland Thorns W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Portland Thorns W attack 1.33 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Washington Spirit W scores more

43%

level

25%

Portland Thorns W scores more

31%

Washington Spirit W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

C. Bethune

Washington Spirit W · M

8.2

Match Events

27'

G. Monday↳ R. Kouassi

44'

Rosemonde Kouassi

63'

M. Mckenzie← K. Torpey

63'

P. Tordin← A. Spaanstra

67'

Jessie Fleming

73'

D. Abiodun← L. Santos

82'

Daiane← R. Turner

82'

L. Harbert← D. Castellanos

83'

C. Bethune

86'

J. Perry← S. Hiatt

89'

P. Metayer← R. Kouassi

90'

T. Rodman← S. Cantore

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WashingtonPortland

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots10

3.30Expected Goals (xG)0.40

11Corners3

11Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots10

8On Target3

5Off Target2

3Blocked5

12Inside Box4

4Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

441Total Passes380

352Accurate Passes291

80%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Washington Spirit W vs Portland Thorns W

Washington Spirit W beat Portland Thorns W 2-0 in NWSL Women on November 15, 2025.

Goals: G. Monday (27'), C. Bethune (83').

Washington Spirit W controlled possession (54%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Audi Field.

Washington Spirit W vs Portland Thorns W — NWSL Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Washington Spirit W vs Portland Thorns W