Portland Thorns W 2–0 Washington Spirit W

Portland Thorns W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Washington Spirit W

P. Tordin 82'

R. Turner 39'

6/15/2025

NWSL Women · Round 12Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Portland Thorns W48%

×Draw25%

Washington Spirit W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland Thorns WExpected goals in this matchWashington Spirit W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.07

Portland Thorns W

1.55

Washington Spirit W

1.07

Portland Thorns W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 85 away

1.92

creates per match

1.28

0.87

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Portland Thorns W

1.92

Washington Spirit W

1.28

allows per match

Portland Thorns W

0.87

Washington Spirit W

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Thorns W ↓

Washington Spirit W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Portland Thorns W or draw

74%

Portland Thorns W or Washington Spirit W

75%

Draw or Washington Spirit W

52%

Winning margin

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+

25%

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals

79%

Portland Thorns W 2+ goals

46%

Portland Thorns W 3+ goals

20%

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals

66%

Washington Spirit W 2+ goals

29%

Washington Spirit W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)

65%

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Thorns W at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.87 · 85 matches

Washington Spirit W away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.18 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Thorns W attack 1.92 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.55

Washington Spirit W attack 1.28 + Portland Thorns W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Portland Thorns W scores more

48%

level

25%

Washington Spirit W scores more

26%

Portland Thorns W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Portland Thorns W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Fleming

Portland Thorns W · M

8.5

Match Events

38'

Hal Hershfelt

39'

R. Turner↳ J. Fleming

46'

P. Linnehan← C. Hanks

46'

R. Bernal← C. Krueger

60'

M. Morris← B. Ratcliffe

60'

C. Brown← C. Bethune

67'

M. Alidou d'Anjou← O. Moultrie

67'

D. Castellanos← H. Sugita

67'

P. Tordin← R. Turner

73'

Narumi Miura

78'

M. Mckenzie← K. Torpey

82'

P. Tordin↳ J. Fleming

83'

K. Sylla← E. Morgan

87'

Samantha Coffey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortlandWashington

Overview

42%Possession58%

17Total Shots13

6Corners5

12Fouls18

Shots

17Total Shots13

6On Target5

6Off Target4

5Blocked4

9Inside Box7

8Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

306Total Passes426

247Accurate Passes353

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1