Washington Spirit W 4–0 Houston Dash W

Washington Spirit W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Houston Dash W

S. Cantore 82'

G. Monday 36', 21', 18'

9/28/2025

NWSL Women · Round 22Audi Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Washington Spirit W56%

×Draw23%

Houston Dash W21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Washington Spirit WExpected goals in this matchHouston Dash W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.02

Washington Spirit W

1.80

Houston Dash W

1.02

Washington Spirit W creates 76% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

1.88

creates per match

0.85

1.20

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Washington Spirit W

1.88

Houston Dash W

0.85

allows per match

Washington Spirit W

1.20

Houston Dash W

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

Houston Dash W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Washington Spirit W ↓

Houston Dash W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Washington Spirit W or draw

79%

Washington Spirit W or Houston Dash W

77%

Draw or Houston Dash W

44%

Winning margin

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+

31%

Houston Dash W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals

83%

Washington Spirit W 2+ goals

54%

Washington Spirit W 3+ goals

27%

Houston Dash W 1+ goals

64%

Houston Dash W 2+ goals

27%

Houston Dash W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)

72%

Houston Dash W (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Washington Spirit W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

Houston Dash W away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Washington Spirit W attack 1.88 + Houston Dash W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.80

Houston Dash W attack 0.85 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Washington Spirit W scores more

56%

level

23%

Houston Dash W scores more

21%

Washington Spirit W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

G. Monday

Washington Spirit W · F

9.0

Match Events

18'

21'

30'

36'

45+2'

46'

D. Abiodun← H. Hershfelt

46'

S. Cantore← G. Monday

46'

M. Alozie← A. Chapman

50'

Michelle Alozie

62'

M. Bright← C. Larisey

62'

R. Gareis← S. Puntigam

65'

K. Wiesner← K. Sylla

75'

N. Miura← L. Santos

82'

B. Ratcliffe← G. Carle

82'

S. Cantore↳ N. Miura

87'

A. Heilferty← D. Sheehan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WashingtonHouston

Overview

62%Possession38%

16Total Shots8

5Corners2

11Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots8

9On Target2

4Off Target4

3Blocked2

15Inside Box6

1Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

472Total Passes281

385Accurate Passes198

82%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1