Houston Dash W 1–3 Washington Spirit W

Houston Dash W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Washington Spirit W

N. Jacobs 1'

C. Bethune 84'

B. Ratcliffe 82'

H. Hershfelt 52'

4/13/2024

NWSL Women · Round 3Shell Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Houston Dash W28%

×Draw26%

Washington Spirit W46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Houston Dash WExpected goals in this matchWashington Spirit W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.44

Houston Dash W

1.06

Washington Spirit W

1.44

Washington Spirit W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

1.24

creates per match

1.40

1.48

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Houston Dash W

1.24

Washington Spirit W

1.40

allows per match

Houston Dash W

1.48

Washington Spirit W

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Houston Dash W+0.00on par

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dash W ↓

Washington Spirit W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Houston Dash W or draw

54%

Houston Dash W or Washington Spirit W

74%

Draw or Washington Spirit W

72%

Winning margin

Houston Dash W wins by 2+

11%

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Houston Dash W 1+ goals

65%

Houston Dash W 2+ goals

29%

Houston Dash W 3+ goals

9%

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals

76%

Washington Spirit W 2+ goals

42%

Washington Spirit W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Houston Dash W (draw refunded)

38%

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dash W at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Washington Spirit W away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dash W attack 1.24 + Washington Spirit W defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Washington Spirit W attack 1.40 + Houston Dash W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Houston Dash W scores more

28%

level

26%

Washington Spirit W scores more

46%

Washington Spirit W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

T. Rodman

Washington Spirit W · M

7.7

Match Events

1'

N. Jacobs↳ S. Puntigam

24'

Croix Bethune

45+3'

C. Petersen← N. Jacobs

52'

H. Hershfelt↳ O. Sarr

56'

H. Solaun← Y. Nagasato

63'

M. Alozie← Andressa Alves

65'

C. Brown← A. Hatch

73'

P. Metayer← A. Sullivan

73'

B. Ratcliffe← O. Sarr

77'

Elin Rubensson

78'

K. van Zanten← A. Patterson

78'

C. Kizer← A. West

82'

B. Ratcliffe↳ C. Krueger

84'

C. Bethune↳ G. Carle

90'

C. Ricketts← C. Bethune

90'

L. Silano← T. Rodman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HoustonWashington

Overview

48%Possession52%

9Total Shots12

8Corners4

13Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots12

1On Target7

4Off Target2

4Blocked3

5Inside Box10

4Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

426Total Passes462

335Accurate Passes371

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2