Washington Spirit W 1–1 Chicago Red Stars W

Washington Spirit W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chicago Red Stars W

S. Cantore 57'

Ludmila 67'

8/31/2025

NWSL Women · Round 18Audi Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Washington Spirit W51%

×Draw24%

Chicago Red Stars W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Washington Spirit WExpected goals in this matchChicago Red Stars W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.14

Washington Spirit W

1.72

Chicago Red Stars W

1.14

Washington Spirit W creates 51% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 83 away

1.56

creates per match

1.13

1.15

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Washington Spirit W

1.56

Chicago Red Stars W

1.13

allows per match

Washington Spirit W

1.15

Chicago Red Stars W

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Washington Spirit W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Washington Spirit W or draw

75%

Washington Spirit W or Chicago Red Stars W

76%

Draw or Chicago Red Stars W

49%

Winning margin

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+

28%

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals

82%

Washington Spirit W 2+ goals

51%

Washington Spirit W 3+ goals

25%

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

68%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

32%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)

67%

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Washington Spirit W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Washington Spirit W attack 1.56 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.72

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.13 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Washington Spirit W scores more

51%

level

24%

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

25%

Washington Spirit W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

S. Cantore

Washington Spirit W · F

7.9

Match Events

22'

46'

57'

59'

67'

72'

A. Cook← S. Cary Angel

72'

L. Nesbeth← M. Lopez Millan

77'

L. Santos← K. Wiesner

77'

D. Abiodun← C. Bethune

81'

N. Gomes← J. Joseph

86'

C. Brown← R. Bernal

90+4'

M. Johnson← B. Franklin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WashingtonChicago

Overview

52%Possession48%

15Total Shots9

11Corners4

6Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots9

4On Target4

7Off Target5

4Blocked0

14Inside Box5

1Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

388Total Passes362

303Accurate Passes283

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

NWSL Women: Washington Spirit W 1–1 Chicago Red Stars W

Washington Spirit W and Chicago Red Stars W drew 1-1 in NWSL Women on August 31, 2025.

Goals: S. Cantore (57'), Ludmila (67').

Washington Spirit W controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Audi Field in Washington.

Washington Spirit W vs Chicago Red Stars W — NWSL Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NWSL Women: Washington Spirit W 1–1 Chicago Red Stars W