Washington Spirit W 0–2 Chicago Red Stars W

Washington Spirit W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Chicago Red Stars W

Y. Nagasato 60'

B. St-Georges 48'

9/3/2023

NWSL Women · Round 12Audi Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Washington Spirit W51%

×Draw24%

Chicago Red Stars W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Washington Spirit WExpected goals in this matchChicago Red Stars W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.14

Washington Spirit W

1.72

Chicago Red Stars W

1.14

Washington Spirit W creates 51% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 83 away

1.56

creates per match

1.13

1.15

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Washington Spirit W

1.56

Chicago Red Stars W

1.13

allows per match

Washington Spirit W

1.15

Chicago Red Stars W

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Washington Spirit W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Washington Spirit W or draw

75%

Washington Spirit W or Chicago Red Stars W

76%

Draw or Chicago Red Stars W

49%

Winning margin

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+

28%

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals

82%

Washington Spirit W 2+ goals

51%

Washington Spirit W 3+ goals

25%

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

68%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

32%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)

67%

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Washington Spirit W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Washington Spirit W attack 1.56 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.72

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.13 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Washington Spirit W scores more

51%

level

24%

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

25%

Washington Spirit W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Naeher

Chicago Red Stars W · G

9.0

Match Events

41'

Penelope Hocking

48'

B. St-Georges↳ C. Krueger

60'

Y. Nagasato↳ P. Hocking

64'

Anaig Butel

68'

A. Cook← E. Stevens

74'

D. Bailey← A. Butel

74'

A. Brooks← P. Metayer

77'

K. Sharples← T. Milazzo

85'

C. Biegalski← O. Sarr

87'

A. Schlegel← P. Hocking

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WashingtonChicago

Overview

52%Possession48%

21Total Shots5

7Corners3

11Fouls7

Shots

21Total Shots5

8On Target2

6Off Target3

7Blocked0

18Inside Box4

3Outside Box1

Passing

52%Possession48%

385Total Passes367

304Accurate Passes275

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves8

Discipline

11Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0