Warta Sieradz 1–5 Unia Skierniewice: Result & Stats

Warta Sieradz

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Unia Skierniewice

8/19/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Warta Sieradz36%

×Draw25%

Unia Skierniewice39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta SieradzExpected goals in this matchUnia Skierniewice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.50

Warta Sieradz

1.42

Unia Skierniewice

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 86 away

1.54

creates per match

1.81

1.19

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Warta Sieradz

1.54

Unia Skierniewice

1.81

allows per match

Warta Sieradz

1.19

Unia Skierniewice

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Sieradz+0.00on par

Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Sieradz ↓

Unia Skierniewice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Warta Sieradz or draw

61%

Warta Sieradz or Unia Skierniewice

75%

Draw or Unia Skierniewice

64%

Winning margin

Warta Sieradz wins by 2+

17%

Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Warta Sieradz 1+ goals

76%

Warta Sieradz 2+ goals

41%

Warta Sieradz 3+ goals

17%

Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals

78%

Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals

44%

Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Warta Sieradz (draw refunded)

48%

Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Sieradz at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 68 matches

Unia Skierniewice away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.29 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Sieradz attack 1.54 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Unia Skierniewice attack 1.81 + Warta Sieradz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Warta Sieradz scores more

36%

level

25%

Unia Skierniewice scores more

39%

Unia Skierniewice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff