Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Unia Skierniewice vs Warta Sieradz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Unia Skierniewice
Unia Skierniewice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz
4/25/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Stadion Miejski w Skierniewicach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Unia Skierniewice46%
×Draw24%
Warta Sieradz30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Skierniewice
1.65
Warta Sieradz
1.28

Unia Skierniewice creates 29% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 68 away

creates per match

Unia Skierniewice
1.89
Warta Sieradz
1.28

allows per match

Unia Skierniewice
1.28
Warta Sieradz
1.41

finishing

Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par
Warta Sieradz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Skierniewice ↓

Warta Sieradz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Unia Skierniewice or draw
70%
Unia Skierniewice or Warta Sieradz
76%
Draw or Warta Sieradz
54%

Winning margin

Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+
24%
Warta Sieradz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals
81%
Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals
49%
Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals
23%
Warta Sieradz 1+ goals
72%
Warta Sieradz 2+ goals
37%
Warta Sieradz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)
61%
Warta Sieradz (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Skierniewice at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.28 · 87 matches

Warta Sieradz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Skierniewice attack 1.89 + Warta Sieradz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.65

Warta Sieradz attack 1.28 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Unia Skierniewice scores more
46%
level
24%
Warta Sieradz scores more
30%

Unia Skierniewice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Unia Skierniewice 1–1 Warta Sieradz

Unia Skierniewice and Warta Sieradz drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Skierniewicach in Skierniewice.