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Warta Sieradz vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz
FT
1 – 2
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
3/16/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Warta Sieradz33%
×Draw24%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Sieradz
1.42
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 18% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Warta Sieradz
1.54
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.14

allows per match

Warta Sieradz
1.19
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.29

finishing

Warta Sieradz+0.00on par
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Sieradz ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Warta Sieradz or draw
57%
Warta Sieradz or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
76%
Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
67%

Winning margin

Warta Sieradz wins by 2+
15%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Warta Sieradz 1+ goals
76%
Warta Sieradz 2+ goals
41%
Warta Sieradz 3+ goals
17%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
81%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
50%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Warta Sieradz (draw refunded)
43%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Sieradz at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 68 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Sieradz attack 1.54 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.14 + Warta Sieradz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Warta Sieradz scores more
33%
level
24%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
43%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Warta Sieradz 1–2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki beat Warta Sieradz 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Sieradz.