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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Sieradz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz
8/13/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki61%
×Draw21%
Warta Sieradz18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.08
Warta Sieradz
1.04

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 100% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 68 away

creates per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.75
Warta Sieradz
1.28

allows per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.81
Warta Sieradz
1.41

finishing

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par
Warta Sieradz+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ↓

Warta Sieradz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw
82%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Warta Sieradz
79%
Draw or Warta Sieradz
39%

Winning margin

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
38%
Warta Sieradz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
87%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
61%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
34%
Warta Sieradz 1+ goals
65%
Warta Sieradz 2+ goals
28%
Warta Sieradz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
77%
Warta Sieradz (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.81 · 52 matches

Warta Sieradz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.75 + Warta Sieradz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 2.08

Warta Sieradz attack 1.28 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
61%
level
21%
Warta Sieradz scores more
18%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Sieradz

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki beat Warta Sieradz 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Grodzisk Mazowiecki.