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Warta Sieradz vs Pilica Białobrzegi — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz
FT
0 – 0
Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
10/15/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Warta Sieradz56%
×Draw22%
Pilica Białobrzegi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Sieradz
1.99
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.16

Warta Sieradz creates 72% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 52 away

creates per match

Warta Sieradz
1.54
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.13

allows per match

Warta Sieradz
1.19
Pilica Białobrzegi
2.44

finishing

Warta Sieradz+0.00on par
Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Sieradz ↓

Pilica Białobrzegi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Warta Sieradz or draw
78%
Warta Sieradz or Pilica Białobrzegi
78%
Draw or Pilica Białobrzegi
44%

Winning margin

Warta Sieradz wins by 2+
33%
Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Warta Sieradz 1+ goals
86%
Warta Sieradz 2+ goals
59%
Warta Sieradz 3+ goals
32%
Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
69%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
32%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Warta Sieradz (draw refunded)
72%
Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Sieradz at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 68 matches

Pilica Białobrzegi away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Sieradz attack 1.54 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.99

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.13 + Warta Sieradz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Warta Sieradz scores more
56%
level
22%
Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
22%

Warta Sieradz at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Warta Sieradz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Warta Sieradz vs Pilica Białobrzegi

Warta Sieradz and Pilica Białobrzegi drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Sieradz.