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Pilica Białobrzegi vs Warta Sieradz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
FT
1 – 1
Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz
8/12/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pilica Białobrzegi37%
×Draw24%
Warta Sieradz38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.48
Warta Sieradz
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 68 away

creates per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.54
Warta Sieradz
1.28

allows per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.71
Warta Sieradz
1.41

finishing

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par
Warta Sieradz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pilica Białobrzegi ↓

Warta Sieradz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pilica Białobrzegi or draw
62%
Pilica Białobrzegi or Warta Sieradz
76%
Draw or Warta Sieradz
63%

Winning margin

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
18%
Warta Sieradz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
77%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
43%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
19%
Warta Sieradz 1+ goals
78%
Warta Sieradz 2+ goals
44%
Warta Sieradz 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
49%
Warta Sieradz (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pilica Białobrzegi at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Warta Sieradz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.54 + Warta Sieradz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Warta Sieradz attack 1.28 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
37%
level
24%
Warta Sieradz scores more
38%

Warta Sieradz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Warta Sieradz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pilica Białobrzegi vs Warta Sieradz

Pilica Białobrzegi and Warta Sieradz drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Białobrzegi.