Warta Poznań 3–1 Stal Stalowa Wola: Result & Stats

Warta Poznań

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stal Stalowa Wola

M. Zylla 78'

K. Szymanek 73'

T. Wojcinowicz 35'

O. Nowak 83'

9/26/2025

II Liga - East · Round 10Stadion przy Drodze Dębińskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Warta Poznań47%

×Draw25%

Stal Stalowa Wola28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta PoznańExpected goals in this matchStal Stalowa Wola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.17

Warta Poznań

1.59

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.17

Warta Poznań creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 52 away

1.71

creates per match

1.21

1.12

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Warta Poznań

1.71

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.21

allows per match

Warta Poznań

1.12

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Warta Poznań or draw

72%

Warta Poznań or Stal Stalowa Wola

75%

Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola

53%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

24%

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

80%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

47%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

21%

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

69%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

33%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

63%

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań attack 1.71 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.59

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.21 + Warta Poznań defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Warta Poznań scores more

47%

level

25%

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

28%

Warta Poznań at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

M. Radecki

34'

L. Furtak

35'

T. Wojcinowicz

56'

K. Szymanek← F. Walus

56'

S. Zalewski← K. Rychert

63'

B. Kukulowicz← J. Kendzia

63'

D. Lacki← D. Wolny

65'

M. Stanek← M. Smoczynski

65'

S. Steblecki← K. Dziedzic

69'

69'

72'

73'

78'

79'

J. Niedbala← L. Hrnciar

81'

I. Wojciechowski← M. Zylla

83'

O. Nowak

87'

T. Wojcinowicz

87'

P. Zemlo

Warta

Stal

1

Jankiewic

4

Furtak

6

Zemlo

7

▼

Radecki

8

▼

Hrnciar

10

Hebel

11

Zaucha

13

▼

Svec

19

▼

Wolny

23

Getinger

77

▼

Kendzia

42

Przybylak

2

Lepczynsk

4

⚽

Wojcinowi

7

▼

Walus

8

Kumoch

20

▼

Dziedzic

17

Stefaniak

21

⚽

▼

Zylla

24

Avdeev

29

▼

Rychert

99

▼

Smoczynsk

Manager: R. Tarasiewicz

56'▲K. Szymanek←▼F. Walus

56'▲S. Zalewski←▼K. Rychert

65'▲M. Stanek←▼M. Smoczynski

65'▲S. Steblecki←▼K. Dziedzic

81'▲I. Wojciechowski←▼M. Zylla

Warta Poznań substitutes

1Kosiorek9StanekTonder13Niedzielski19Szymanek35JakubowskiSteblecki74ZalewskiWojciechowski

Manager: M. Jarosz

63'▲B. Kukulowicz←▼J. Kendzia

63'▲D. Lacki←▼D. Wolny

69'▲H. Tomalski←▼J. Svec

69'▲O. Nowak←▼M. Radecki

79'▲J. Niedbala←▼L. Hrnciar

Stal Stalowa Wola substitutes

33Smylek2Kukulowicz9Lacki16Lelek17Tomalski18Surzyn20Niedbala73Radomski99Nowak