Warta Poznań 1–0 Stal Stalowa Wola: Result & Stats

Warta Poznań

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stal Stalowa Wola

R. Adamski 8' (pen)

8/10/2024

I Liga · Round 4Stadion Respect Energy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Warta Poznań49%

×Draw26%

Stal Stalowa Wola26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta PoznańExpected goals in this matchStal Stalowa Wola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.05

Warta Poznań

1.54

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.05

Warta Poznań creates 47% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.20

creates per match

0.88

1.22

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Warta Poznań

1.20

Stal Stalowa Wola

0.88

allows per match

Warta Poznań

1.22

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Warta Poznań or draw

74%

Warta Poznań or Stal Stalowa Wola

74%

Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola

51%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

25%

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

79%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

45%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

20%

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

65%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

28%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

65%

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań attack 1.20 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.54

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 0.88 + Warta Poznań defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Warta Poznań scores more

49%

level

26%

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

26%

Warta Poznań at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Y. Tkachuk

8'

R. AdamskiPenalty

43'

J. Kielb

45+3'

K. Przybylko

45'

S. Pawłowski← S. Sarbinowski

55'

D. Lacki

59'

L. Furtak

61'

J. Górski← K. Chełmecki

61'

K. Lelek← C. Pchełka

72'

B. Pioterczak← D. Łącki

73'

S. Strózik← A. Imiela

75'

D. Gąska← Ł. Norkowski

75'

K. Michalski← B. Szeliga

81'

M. Żurawski← M. Firlej

82'

J. Kowalski← P. Zaucha

90+6'

A. Wilk

90+1'

F. Jakubowski← K. Przybyłko

Warta

Stal

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: P. Jacek

45'▲S. Pawłowski←▼S. Sarbinowski

75'▲D. Gąska←▼Ł. Norkowski

75'▲K. Michalski←▼B. Szeliga

81'▲M. Żurawski←▼M. Firlej

90+1'▲F. Jakubowski←▼K. Przybyłko

Warta Poznań substitutes

PawłowskiGąskaMichalskiŻurawskiJakubowskiPrzybylakPleśnierowiczTonderWaluś

Manager: I. Pietrzykowski

61'▲J. Górski←▼K. Chełmecki

61'▲K. Lelek←▼C. Pchełka

72'▲B. Pioterczak←▼D. Łącki

73'▲S. Strózik←▼A. Imiela

82'▲J. Kowalski←▼P. Zaucha

Stal Stalowa Wola substitutes

GórskiLelekPioterczakStrózikKowalskiTomaszewskiSmyłekSoszyński

I Liga: Warta Poznań 1–0 Stal Stalowa Wola

Warta Poznań beat Stal Stalowa Wola 1-0 in I Liga on August 10, 2024.

Goals: R. Adamski (8' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Respect Energy in Grodzisk Wielkopolski.

Warta Poznań vs Stal Stalowa Wola — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Warta Poznań 1–0 Stal Stalowa Wola