Warta Poznań 0–2 Raków Częstochowa: Result & Stats

Warta Poznań

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Raków Częstochowa

4/2/2022

Ekstraklasa · Round 27Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Warta Poznań32%

×Draw28%

Raków Częstochowa40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta PoznańExpected goals in this matchRaków Częstochowa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.27

Warta Poznań

1.11

Raków Częstochowa

1.27

Raków Częstochowa creates 14% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 118 away

1.03

creates per match

1.42

1.11

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Warta Poznań

1.03

Raków Częstochowa

1.42

allows per match

Warta Poznań

1.11

Raków Częstochowa

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań ↓

Raków Częstochowa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Warta Poznań or draw

60%

Warta Poznań or Raków Częstochowa

72%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa

68%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

13%

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

67%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

30%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

10%

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

72%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

36%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

45%

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Raków Częstochowa away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.20 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań attack 1.03 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.42 + Warta Poznań defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Warta Poznań scores more

32%

level

28%

Raków Częstochowa scores more

40%

Raków Częstochowa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff